Tool Box Talk: Overconfidence and Safety

An accident occurred at a chemical corporation. Apparently an employee was working on a pipe in a particular unit of the plant where they make different chemical products from raw materials. Normally when someone is taking apart a pipe or “braking a line”, he or she checks what are known as the “blood lines” – where the pressure from the tank is exerted on the pipes. If the pressure is not lowered and the line is opened, the product will be forced out of the pipe and onto whatever is in its path. Apparently, the employee felt he knew the unit very well; thought there wasn’t any product being made at the time, and thus no product in the line. Due to this assumption, he didn’t check the blood lines and proceeded to break the line. Upon doing this, the pressure from the tank forced product out of the line and sprayed the employee, burning him severely, but not killing him.

This unfortunate accident is one that could have been prevented had the employee followed the proper work practices. However, the employee experienced the social psychological phenomenon of overconfidence. The overconfidence phenomenon is defined as the tendency to be more confident than correct or to overestimate the accuracy of one’s beliefs (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). One may feel overconfident about facts or how one will behave in the future. This confidence does not necessarily lead to wise or correct actions; it is overestimating abilities and judgements. Thus, overconfidence can have serious implications for safety in the workplace.

As the example illustrates, overconfidence can lead to accidents. It often causes someone to disregard safety procedures, rules, and common sense (“Overconfidence Causes Accidents,” 1998). People with years of experience at a job are certainly very familiar with their job; they could “do it with their eyes shut”. It is this familiarity with the job and all it entails that cause less stringent adherence to safety rules, becoming a dangerous problem. Another social theory that can help explain this phenomenon is the confirmation bias, which is a tendency to search for information that confirms one’s preconceptions (Swann & Read, 1981). So, a person in a particular job may think of all the times he or she has done the job correctly without following the rules, but he or she may not recall the times in which there were “close calls” or mistakes due to ignoring the usual safe work practices. Thus, confirmation bias can lead to overconfidence. Unfortunately, this can result in many serious — but preventable – injures. Everything from failing to wear a hardhat to leaving the file cabinet drawers open has led to injuries. In short, overconfidence directly affects safety in the workplace.

The important issue to address here is how to reduce overconfidence in the workplace, and consequently, reduce accidents. There are many tactics to employ in reducing overconfidence. One method to reduce overconfidence is to provide prompt feedback to the person who is experiencing the phenomenon (Lichtenstein & Fischoff, 1980). To begin, it would be very beneficial to offer education specifically about the overconfidence phenomenon instead of just the safety procedures. By creating awareness of the phenomenon, it is possible to increase employees’ awareness of job tasks, which will reduce accidents. They will be able to recognize it in themselves and their coworkers and provide each other with feedback, thus reducing the chance of accidents or injuries.

The work atmosphere can also play a role in the likelihood of overconfidence arising or declining in the workplace.

An environment conducive to openness rather than intimidation is helpful in that it will encourage employees to ask questions about a procedure if necessary, rather than making assumptions that could lead to injuries or accidents. There are other ways to reduce overconfidence that involve increased awareness through education. Regular safety training “refreshers” are also a proficient way to renew safe work practices for employees as well as to present any new information regarding safety hazards or precautions. Increasing knowledge and awareness can decrease the probability of overconfidence and accidents. There are so many ways in which psychology plays a role in safety.

The overconfidence phenomenon is one that can lead to unsafe acts and injuries. Reducing overconfidence is a key step to increasing safety in the workplace. Confidence in yourself and in your job is adaptive, but overconfidence can kill.

And a bonus quote from John Wooden:

“It is what we learn after we think we know it all, that counts.”

Thanks for the share, TO!